Thoughts on Jeremy's latest video "AAA Games Company Crash"

[Methpoodle]

I'm glad Jeremy made this video. This is something I've been thinking about for a long time now. I think this will be a good thing in the long run. Though it saddens me to see the industry (AAA Industry) Seemingly tear itself apart with greed. I feel we'll see the proverbial phoenix rise from the ashes. Good developers like CD and many a driven indie developer it think, will be the next wave of industry giants, hopefully learning from the mistakes of their predecessors. Fingers crossed we'll get to see a new golden age of gaming where projects are driven by passion and not hungry investors. Personally it would be cool to see developers and publishers run like co-ops where the gamers themselves have some say in the direction of companies.

Hopefully this is around the corner and I'm not just a dreamer, away with the fairies.
Feel free to share your thoughts.

[monnef]

Frankly, as dark as it might sound, even if big AAA company crashes, nothing really changes for devs. Current practice in game industry is to fire almost all devs after end of project, so either way devs have to start looking for a new job every few years.

[monnef]

Yeah, it's mostly global phenomena, not only AAA or tech. But tech (and so AAA) reacts to changes more drastically, so while it is possible some blunders affected it to some degree, it is not by far just about them. Of course another crisis is lurking, everybody is living because of ever increasing debt, dollar is being conjured from thin air and other countries started to getting rid of dollar, making everybody with tons of money (e.g. companies, shareholders) even more nervous.

[Methpoodle]

Never heard of it. Ill have to give it a looksie.

[monnef]

"This brings me to another point not everybody in the gaming industry is the best at code, ... etc. which means deadlines are missed"

In IT is extremely common to give bad estimates. You don't have to be a bad developer or programmer to do that.

Just a parallel - you get a new puzzle game, before you start you are asked to give an estimate how long it will take you to complete the whole game. If you have never played it, you are just tossing random numbers. If you played similar puzzle game, your estimate may be close to reality, but also this game can have new intricacies you never saw before, so you learn your estimate was plain wrong by several times.

It is common saying to get estimate from a developer, then multiply it by 3, then by 5 and you may or may not hit the real time it will take to implement .

[LordOTaco]

Its kind of like alot of businesses no one but save for a few think their idea is gonna be big and those few take high risks and develop an idea lots of people really like and they become huge and win big. The industry grows and like a moth to light is the wild west for awhile. Then it becomes standard and a late majority is into the market and it no longer is as special as it was before and becomes saturated and loses what made it interesting and fun.

[Broken Mirror]

I thought about the same thing for quite some time now.

Looking back on the crash that already happened (although it affected mostly the US), I see some similarities but also a few differences.

Everybody and their dog is making games right now. Valve pretty much killed off Greenlight because of all the low quality games flooding the store. I'm not really sure if it has gotten any better though (I ralrely browse the “soon” category these days). On mobile it seems even worse.

The fuckups of the 3A devs just seem to be the icing on the cake this time.

On the other hand (and correct me if I'm wrong): Games as an entertainment medium seem to be way more established in society these days. This may soften the effects of an incoming crash to a certain degree. Look at BFV and FO76. It's not like they didn't sell at all.

I don't know about you guys, but I accumulated a huge backlog (retro and recent). I probably already have games to keep me entertained until my retirement.

[ethansito]

Am I the only one here that doesn't want a videogame crash? I think it will impact us more negatively than positively. I dont really see how people would think this is a good thing

People think it's a good thing because it will shake up the industry and hopefully force companies to develop games the way we want them to. People are tired of the BS that AAA companies have been pulling, so they welcome change, even if it comes in the form of a crash.

[ciderPunk1877]

First, I don't think this is yet really a crash... curious to see if stocks rebound in the New Year...

But if it is? Burn, baby, burn. I'm just sick of the whole bloated, exploitative, trend chasing, pre-order emote DLC for another open world always-online battle royale games-as-a-bad-service, ship-it-now-make-it-good-later state of AAA publishers.

Like, my favorite game of 2018 is Into the Breach.

We have more than enough talent to sustain the industry without the likes of Ubisoft and EA's cringey press conference culture.

[aileron]

Am I the only one here that doesn't want a videogame crash? I think it will impact us more negatively than positively. I dont really see how people would think this is a good thing

Crash, recession, I don't know, I'm not worried. Apparently there was the "great video game crash" in the 80s? Guys, I lived through that and didn't even notice it. I found out about it decades later from Wikipedia. Maybe if you're a software developer for video games you'd need to worry about market dips, but as a consumer? Nah.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vide..._crash_of_1983

[King_Nothing]

I don't think may big names will be closing off the backs of this dip, I still think there are enough people around to consume whatever they put out regardless, although in saying that I do think recent trends might force at least some changes. I know it's easy to shit on Battlefield 5, and I'm not saying they should be applauded for this but; when they came out and announced no extra paid content for Battlefield V I think that was a step in the right direction, and a change no doubt forced by current trends and peoples growing animosity towards things like DLC and season passes, I can fully understand though had nothing been said or if the Battlefront 2 fiasco didn't have so much traction, EA would have pushed for every extra penny to be squeezed out of BFV players, and unless things continue as they are; then I could actually see EA do a 180 and this crap make a bigger return in the next instalment of Battlefield (if there even is one).

[Mr Phixit]

Companies making AAA games commit the biggest crime by ensuring that there are no gamers in the Boardroom. I noticed this first with the GameCube. Nintendo had too many old Japanese guys running the company making very poor decisions. I believe that in the late 90s when gaming was fighting for recognition from the mainstream the boardrooms made a few decisions that left a bad taste in gamers mouths. It made the medium into what it is now with bigger profit margins than film and the same recognition in some respects. However, when the boardroom thinks that they are the artists and they are ones setting trends in the industry we have people like EA telling us single player games are dead, and Microsoft trying to stop the used games market. Devs want to make pieces of art for us to enjoy.

Boardrooms without gamers is heretical.

[mynerva]

I think the current state of the AAA is a just the natural progression of how the world works, we're just seeing it finally ensnare our beloved games.

The industry has been pulling in a huge amount of money for the last decade, if not longer and investors see this and hop on the gravy-train. But the weight of carrying those kinds of 'people' puts pressure on studios and devs to keep raking in larger and larger sums and pretty soon, profit becomes the core-goal instead of the passion for the art. It's why we're seeing so many talented people burning out and all of those well known studios eaten up by publishers.

The crash will be the wake-up call but it's going to come too late for some.

I mean, I can't speak for anyone else here but my buying habits have changed in recent years. If I do buy AAA it's usually pre-owned. I'm loathed to have my pennies go to some fat-cat investor who could care less about the craft.

[MinPC64]

AAA games are unsustainable. these blockbusters cost way to much to develop and market and few actually sell enough forcing publishers to cram garbage season passes and pay to win micro transactions into games to make a profit.

[RevolverGirl]

Am I the only one here that doesn't want a videogame crash? I think it will impact us more negatively than positively. I dont really see how people would think this is a good thing